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Archive for the "401kare" Category

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A US Economics Report Wednesday, 13 November 2013

  • Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen released a brief statement ahead of her Senate confirmation hearing at 10 AM ET on Thursday. • Markets read her comments as dovish, inferring that she might wait some time to taper Fed asset purchases. We disagree. • We expect Yellen to bring continuity to Fed policy once […]

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A Research Investment Committee Report Tuesday, 12 November 2013

  • The fundamentals for the stock market remain positive in our view. We emphasize sectors that appear to be undervalued. • Munis and taxable high yield may do best in the bond market. We recommend laddering out to intermediate maturities. • We raised our allocation to Europe. Our American Innovation focus is on Big […]

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A US Economics Report Friday, 08 November 2013

October data show the economy shrugging off the shutdown. We are increasingly confident about better growth ahead. We offer four simple rules for filtering signals from the Fed. Yellen is likely to sound centrist in her confirmation hearings. This could be interpreted as hawkish in the markets.     Read the full report here. Tweet

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A US Economics Report Friday, 08 November 2013

October’s employment was strong relative to expectations. NFP advanced 204k and there were net positive revisions of 60k. The household survey was heavily distorted by the government shutdown. From the Fed’s perspective, this report keeps an early taper in play.     Read the full report here.   Tweet

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A US Economics Report Thursday, 07 November 2013

Third quarter GDP surprised to the upside, rising 2.8% qoq saar in the 3Q. Investors should fade the strength in the headline, inventories added 0.8pp to growth in 3Q. Real final sales came in at 2.0%     Read the full report here. Tweet

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research A US Economics Report Wednesday, 06 November 2013

The FOMC is unlikely to adopt “optimal control” monetary policy any time soon. We expect them to lower their unemployment rate guidepost and interest rate guidance next year. The Fed does not use research papers, even by senior economists, to communicate likely shifts in policy. Read the full report here. Tweet

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – A US Economics Report Wednesday, 30 October 2013

• CPI inflation remains soft, with the headline rising 0.2% and the core up just 0.1% monthly in September. • On an annual basis, CPI inflation has dropped to 1.2% — the lowest since April — while core edged lower to 1.7%. • This report suggests inflation is still far from satisfying the Fed’s longer-run […]

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – An Economics Report from Michael S. Hanson Friday, 25 October 2013

• After a “close call” in September, we expect no policy actions in October as Fed officials assess the post-shutdown data. • We expect the October minutes to reveal continued debate over conditions to taper and potential changes to forward guidance. • Our base case is a $10 bn taper in January, but we have […]

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – A US Economics Report – Tuesday, 22 October 2013

September’s employment report was a disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 148k against a market looking for a 180k increase. Net revisions were positive but only by +9k. Private payrolls were soft, up just 126k in September. Meanwhile, on the upside, the unemployment rate slipped a tenth to 7.2%. Overall, these data confirm that the economy […]

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BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – A US Economics Report – Wednesday, 09 October 2013

The September FOMC minutes revealed a notable divide between those Fed officials who wanted to taper in September and those who preferred to wait. While a number of participants were in the former group, most voting members apparently were in the latter one. For them, the combination of weaker data and greater risks led them […]

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