The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the normal data flow. We, along with the markets and the Fed, are flying blind when it comes to tracking the economy. Most importantly, the September payroll report will not be released on Friday, October 4 – and we won’t know when it will be released until the shutdown ends. Meanwhile, the longer the shutdown drags on, the less we will know. The majority of indicators that would have been released in the next few weeks feed directly into our GDP tracking model, which we won’t be able to update until the shutdown ends. Similarly, inflation data currently scheduled for next week and the week after could be at risk.
Read the full report here.