Mixed economic data: strong retail sales, soft inflation
This morning’s data was mixed with a better than expected retail sales report, a flat Empire manufacturing report and soft PPI inflation. The most important piece of information in these reports is the core retail sales figure since it feeds directly into our GDP tracking model. Core retail sales came in better than expected rising 0.6% in December with no revisions to the prior month’s data. This bumped up our tracking estimate for real consumption growth in the fourth quarter to 2.3% qoq saar from 2.1%. We are now tracking overall GDP growth of 1.0% instead of the 0.9% going into today’s data.
Read the full report here.